West Ham United v Preston North End prediction

Preview

## Preston North End: bottom, but awkward last time out

Preston North End come to the London Stadium bottom of the Championship. They do, though, arrive off a 1-0 home win over Southampton in which they started as clear underdogs. It was a result built on resistance. Southampton had 78% of the ball, 23 shots and eight on target, while Preston made eight saves and hit the woodwork themselves.

That win stands out because the rest of their Championship season has been thin. Preston have two wins from 15 league games, eight points and 30 goals conceded. The 2-0 defeat at Stoke City is closer to the usual pattern. Preston failed to manage a shot on target there and gave up six big chances.

West Ham United: shots without points

West Ham United have lost three of their last four Championship matches, despite rarely being short of attempts. At home to Southampton they had 28 shots and 11 on target, yet still lost 3-2 as clear favourites.

Volume has not always meant quality. West Ham created no big chances against Southampton or West Bromwich Albion, while conceding four in each game. At Cardiff City the finishing was the issue rather than the build-up. They made six big chances and put ten shots on target but drew 3-3, because Cardiff scored three from seven shots. Both teams have scored in four of West Ham's last five Championship matches.

The players likely to matter

Jarrod Bowen is the central figure. He has seven goals and seven assists and has started 15 games, so most of West Ham's threat runs through him. The goals are spread, though. Konstantinos Mavropanos has five, while Divine Mukasa and Joël Piroe have four each. For Preston, Callum Lang leads the way with four goals. Daniel Iversen has made 43 saves, a heavy workload that reflects how often Preston have been pinned back.

What we expect

West Ham should create enough to win this. They have produced 1.6 xG a match over their last five, while Preston have allowed 2.1 xG a match over the same run. West Ham's 37 league goals against Preston's 13 point the same direction. That means the bulk of the scoring should come at the home side's end.

The risk is West Ham's own defending. They have conceded 23 in the league and keep losing games they were expected to win, while Preston showed against Southampton that they can survive heavy pressure. A goal for the visitors would not be a surprise, even if a home win remains the likelier result. Our call is in the Pundit Pick section below.