Swansea City v West Bromwich Albion prediction

Preview

Only two points separate these sides in the Championship. West Bromwich Albion arrive fourth on 28 points, while Swansea City sit sixth on 26. As the table stands, a home win would lift Swansea City above their visitors.

West Bromwich Albion: more chances than points

West Bromwich Albion are unbeaten in their last five Championship matches. Even so, the two draws in that run were games they could have won. Against Southampton they created four big chances, missed three and hit the woodwork in a 1-1 home draw as favourites. At Preston North End they had 72% of the ball and 20 shots, yet still came away with a 1-1 draw after a late equaliser.

Their best result came as clear underdogs. They came from behind to beat Blackburn Rovers 3-2 with a late winner, because they created nine big chances in that match. Isaac Price (six goals, three assists) and Jimmy-Jay Morgan (five goals, four assists) give them a real threat. However, both teams have scored in four of West Bromwich Albion's last five Championship matches.

Swansea City: strong at home, shaky away

Swansea City's results depend heavily on where they play. At home they beat Blackburn Rovers 4-0 as clear favourites, with nine shots on target to one. Even the 1-0 home defeat by West Ham United, who were heavy favourites, came after Swansea City had most of the ball, though they failed to land a shot on target. Away from home they lost 5-0 at Queens Park Rangers and 3-1 at Portsmouth.

Over their last five matches, Swansea City have created 1.7 xG a game and been on top for 57% of minutes. However, they have also allowed 1.5 xG a game, so Lawrence Vigouroux's six clean sheets this season may be hard to add to. Adam Idah leads their scoring with four goals, while Ji-sung Eom has three assists.

What we expect

Recent meetings at the Swansea.com Stadium point towards the home side, though only narrowly. Swansea City beat West Bromwich Albion 1-0 there as underdogs in the Championship in January, and the previous league meeting there finished 1-1. The FA Cup tie at the same ground ended 2-2, despite Swansea City creating 2.52 xG to 1.8.

The home record and chance creation give Swansea City a slight edge, while the visitors' attack makes a low-scoring game unlikely. Both defences have conceded chances, so goals at each end seem more likely than a tight 1-0. The main risk is West Bromwich Albion's finishing. If Price and Morgan take the chances their side usually creates, the visitors are good enough to leave with something. Our verdict is in the Pundit Pick section below.