Stoke City v Birmingham City prediction

Preview

Birmingham City arrive at the Bet365 Stadium top of the Championship, yet Stoke City sit level with them on 29 points in third. That makes this a straight test of whether the leaders' attack can get through a defence that has given very little away lately.

Stoke have kept three clean sheets in their last five Championship matches and allowed only 0.9 xG a match over that run. Preston North End failed to land a shot on target in Stoke, and Bristol City did not score there either. The concern is at the other end, because the goalless draw with Bristol City came with just one shot on target from 11, despite Stoke going in as narrow favourites.

Stoke City: winning more than they dominate

Stoke's recent wins have not always been comfortable. At Portsmouth they came from behind to win 2-1 as underdogs, despite managing only four shots and taking no corners to Portsmouth's seven. They won by the same score at Blackburn Rovers, while their hosts made far more dangerous attacks. Those results show a side that holds firm under pressure, though they flatter how much of those games Stoke actually controlled.

Birmingham City: chances made, chances missed

Birmingham create more than Stoke usually allow, averaging 2.0 xG a match over their last five. Their finishing has not kept pace. Against Swansea City they had 21 shots and five big chances, missed all five and hit the woodwork, and still won only 2-1 against ten men. They have also conceded 1.6 xG a match over that run. Millwall had 14 shots inside the box in a game Birmingham won 3-0.

The one defeat in that spell is worth noting. Birmingham lost 1-0 at Cardiff City, where Cardiff had five big chances to their two. Despite the 3-1 win at Lincoln City, that game shows the leaders can be outplayed away from home.

What we expect

Both sides have scored at least twice in each of their last three Championship matches. Even so, this looks more like a tight contest than an open one, because Stoke's defending has been the steadier of the two. Viktor Johansson has played every minute and kept five clean sheets, so he is central to that. Jack McGlynn, with five goals, and Ethan Galbraith, with five assists, carry most of Stoke's threat. For Birmingham, August Priske Flyger leads the way with six goals, while Jay Stansfield and Liam Millar have four each.

Stoke look only slightly more likely to come out on top, and a draw is very much in play. The main risk is Birmingham's volume of chances. If they finish better than they did against Swansea City, Stoke's clean-sheet run will be tested hard. Our call is in the Pundit Pick section below.