Southampton v Derby County prediction

Preview

Derby County arrive at St. Mary's Stadium 23rd in the Championship on 10 points, and they have conceded in each of their last five league matches. Southampton sit seventh on 24 points, though they come into this off a 1-0 defeat at Preston North End that sums up their recent finishing.

Southampton: chances made, chances missed

Southampton lost at Preston as clear favourites despite 23 shots, eight on target and 78% of the ball. The Preston goalkeeper made eight saves, and both of Southampton's big chances went begging. The goalless home draw with Bolton Wanderers followed the same pattern. Southampton were heavy favourites and created three big chances, but missed all of them.

The attack is still producing, though. Southampton have averaged 1.7 xG over their last five Championship matches. They beat Queens Park Rangers 4-1 with nine shots on target and won 3-2 at West Ham United as underdogs. Cyle Larin, with seven goals this season, and Finn Azaz, with five assists, are the players most likely to turn that volume into goals.

Derby County: open at the back

Derby's problem is at the other end. They have allowed 2.5 xG a match over their last five and conceded 11 goals in that Championship run. The 4-0 home defeat to Norwich City came as only slight underdogs. At Millwall they faced 21 shots and seven big chances in a 4-1 loss, while their own attack managed four shots on target.

There is still some fight in them, however. Derby came from behind to beat Bolton Wanderers 3-1 last time out despite having only 30% of the ball. They also held Sheffield United 1-1 away despite a red card, with their goalkeeper making ten saves. Bobby Clark and Sammie Szmodics, with three goals each this season, carry most of the threat.

What we expect

Southampton should create plenty against a defence that has given up this many chances, so a game with goals in it looks more likely than a tight one. The risk is their own finishing. They dropped points as favourites against Bolton Wanderers and Preston North End despite having most of the ball. They have also conceded in four of their last five, which gives Derby a route back into the game. The Pundit Pick section below sets out our call.