Sheffield United v Watford prediction

Preview

## Sheffield United's form: chances made, goals missed

Sheffield United go into this game 10th in the Championship on 22 points, seven clear of 20th-placed Watford. They arrive off a 2-1 defeat at Charlton Athletic, but the chances do not explain that loss. Sheffield United were slight favourites, had seven shots on target to Charlton's two, and missed both of their big chances.

That fits a wider pattern. Sheffield United have created 1.9 xG a match over their last five and allowed only 0.8, yet they have scored more than once in just one of those games. The 1-1 draw with Derby County is the clearest example. Derby played with ten men and Sheffield United had 25 shots, 10 of them on target, but they still dropped points as clear favourites. The 3-2 comeback win at Preston North End shows they can turn pressure into goals, though not often enough.

Watford's form: clean sheets, few shots

Watford have kept two clean sheets in a row in the Championship, and that is the main reason for caution. Still, the 0-0 with Middlesbrough flattered them. Watford drew as clear underdogs with 26% of the ball, while Middlesbrough had 18 shots, missed four big chances and hit the woodwork. Lincoln City also hit the woodwork in Watford's 1-0 win.

Their attack is the bigger concern. Watford have scored 13 goals in 15 Championship games. In the 1-0 defeat at Wolverhampton Wanderers they managed four shots and none on target. The 2-0 win over Charlton Athletic, with 10 shots on target, looks like the exception rather than the rule.

The players likely to matter

Patrick Bamford leads Sheffield United with five goals. Sydie frederick Peck has four goals and two assists, so these two are the likeliest to finish the chances Watford tend to allow. Michael Cooper has kept five clean sheets. For Watford, Federico Ravaglia has been busy with 52 saves, while Iker Bravo's three assists make him their main creator. Amin Nabizada is their top scorer, though with only three goals.

What we expect

Sheffield United have won the last five Championship meetings between these clubs. The most recent of those was a 2-0 win at Watford in April, despite Watford creating more xG that day, so the history matters less than the current gap in chance quality. Expect Sheffield United to take more of the shots and Watford to lean heavily on Ravaglia. Because Watford score so rarely and Sheffield United waste so much, this looks more like a low-scoring game than an open one. The risk is the home side's finishing. If the misses against Charlton Athletic and Derby County are repeated, Watford's recent clean sheets suggest they could hold on for a draw. Our call is in the Pundit Pick section below.