Norwich City v Cardiff City prediction

Preview

## Norwich City's winning run

Norwich City return to Carrow Road having won their last four Championship matches. They have also kept clean sheets in their last two. That has them 11th on 21 points, while Cardiff City sit 18th on 15. Cardiff's last league outing was a 3-3 draw with West Ham United on 4 November.

The 5-0 at Bristol City was less one-sided than the score, because Bristol City had more of the ball and more dangerous attacks. Norwich still made the better chances, five big chances to two. The 3-2 home win over Watford needed a comeback, and Watford created more big chances that day. Norwich have produced 1.7 xG a game over their last five league matches. That is healthy, though their recent scoring has run ahead of it.

Cardiff City: harder to read

Cardiff City's recent draws look better than the performances behind them. At Middlesbrough they played with ten men and were outshot 36 to seven, yet still drew 2-2 as clear underdogs. Against West Ham United they faced 18 shots and six big chances while creating only one big chance themselves. A penalty helped them to a 3-3 draw. Nathan Trott made eight and seven saves in those games, and his 53 saves this season show how often he has been needed.

The other side of Cardiff is that they do create. They lost 3-0 at Wolverhampton Wanderers as clear underdogs despite nine shots on target and hitting the woodwork. They also missed a penalty in a narrow 1-0 home win over Birmingham City. Over their last five Championship matches they have created 2.0 xG a game while allowing 1.8. Jack Moylan, with nine goals and three assists, and Ollie Tanner, with four assists, are the players most likely to test Norwich.

What we expect

This looks more likely to be open than tight. Norwich have scored two or more in each of their last three Championship matches, while Cardiff's games keep producing chances at both ends. Norwich's goals are spread around. Mohamed Touré has five, while Mathias Kvistgaarden (four goals, four assists) and Paris Maghoma (four goals) give them more than one source of goals. Norwich also won the Carabao Cup meeting at Cardiff in August 2-1, and they had the better of the chances on xG.

Home advantage, the stronger recent performances and Cardiff's habit of conceding chances all lean towards Norwich, though not by much. The risk is Cardiff's attack. Moylan has already scored nine times, so Norwich's clean-sheet run is under real threat. Our call is in the Pundit Pick section below.