Millwall v Queens Park Rangers prediction

Preview

## Millwall: harsher results than performances

Millwall go into this after back-to-back 3-0 defeats in the Championship, at West Bromwich Albion and Birmingham City. They have conceded in each of their last five league games, 11 goals in all. They sit 15th on 18 points, while Queens Park Rangers are eighth on 24.

The Birmingham defeat was harsher than the score. Millwall had 16 shots, 14 from inside the box, missed both their big chances and hit the woodwork. Birmingham scored three times without creating a single big chance. The Den has also been kinder. Millwall beat Derby County 4-1 there with seven big chances. They also drew 2-2 with Lincoln City despite Lincoln arriving as heavy favourites, though Lincoln finished with ten men.

Queens Park Rangers: a different side away

Queens Park Rangers arrive off a late winner against Lincoln City, a 2-1 home win they were expected to get. The draw with Burnley before that was better than the result. Queens Park Rangers had 20 shots to Burnley's four and missed both big chances, while Burnley scored with their only shot on target.

Away from home, the picture changes. Queens Park Rangers lost 4-1 at Southampton, conceding four big chances without creating one. Before that they lost 3-0 at Birmingham City. Both games looked close beforehand, yet neither finished that way. Their 5-0 win over Swansea City, which included a penalty, came at home and tells us less about this trip.

What we expect

Millwall's home results and their visitors' heavy away defeats point towards the home side, though only narrowly. History adds some weight. Millwall have won the last three Championship meetings, including a 2-0 win at The Den in April when Queens Park Rangers managed just 0.15 xG. Goals look likely at both ends because Millwall have created 1.7 xG a match over their last five while allowing 1.6. That points to an open game rather than a tight one.

Lyndon Dykes, with four goals and two assists, and Camiel Neghli, with three of each, carry most of Millwall's threat this season. For Queens Park Rangers, Richard Kone's five goals and Ilias Chair's three assists make them the pair to watch. The main risk to Millwall is at the other end. They have failed to score in two of their last three league games, and Queens Park Rangers have conceded only once in their last two at home and away combined against Burnley and Lincoln City. See the Pundit Pick section below for our call.