Middlesbrough v Bristol City prediction

Preview

## Middlesbrough: chances made, goals missing

Middlesbrough lead the Championship on 29 points, yet they have failed to score in two of their last three league matches. Making chances has not been the problem. At Watford they had 74% of the ball, took 18 shots and created four big chances. They missed all four and hit the woodwork, so a game they were clear favourites to win finished 0-0.

That is now a pattern rather than a one-off. Middlesbrough have dropped points as clear favourites in three of their last five Championship games. That run includes a 2-2 draw with ten-man Cardiff City despite 36 shots. The 2-0 defeat at Wrexham was the worst of it, with no big chances at all. Still, they have averaged 2.3 xG while allowing only 0.8 across those five. The 5-1 win at Bolton Wanderers showed what happens when the finishing matches the chances. Will Lankshear's 13 goals are ten more than any teammate's.

Bristol City: struggling for results

Bristol City arrive 16th on 18 points. They have lost all three home games among their last five in the Championship. The latest was a 5-0 defeat by Norwich City in which they also conceded a penalty. The 2-1 home defeat by Wolverhampton Wanderers was fairer, though, with five shots against 17.

Their away form has been better, if hardly fluent. They came from behind to win 3-2 at Bolton Wanderers with a late winner, then drew 0-0 at Stoke City without a shot on target. They have failed to score in three of their last five league games. When goals do come, Scott Twine (five) and Dom Ballard (four) are the main threats, while Rio Cardines has supplied six assists.

An awkward history

The real warning for Middlesbrough is this fixture. Bristol City are unbeaten in the last five Championship meetings, winning four of them. Two of those wins came at the Riverside Stadium. Middlesbrough have often been the better side and still come away with nothing. Last December they produced 2.9 xG and lost 2-0. In March they had 1.82 xG to Bristol City's 0.41 and could only draw 1-1.

What we expect

The likeliest pattern is Middlesbrough creating most of the chances against a side that rarely threatens much, because Bristol City's attack has dried up in recent weeks. Middlesbrough's low xG against points to a fairly low-scoring game rather than an open one. Their own chance creation means they should still find a way through. The risk is familiar: the finishing seen at Watford and Wrexham, and an opponent that has repeatedly frustrated them. Our full call is in the Pundit Pick section below.