Lincoln City v Wrexham prediction

Preview

## Lincoln City: results behind the performances

Lincoln City go into this one 21st of 24 in the Championship, three points behind 14th-placed Wrexham, after three straight league defeats. Some of that run is harsher than the football. They hit the woodwork in a 1-0 defeat at Watford, a game expected to be close. They hit it again against Birmingham City, who arrived at the LNER Stadium as heavy favourites, and still put six shots on target in a 3-1 loss.

The real worry is at the other end. Lincoln City have conceded in each of their last five Championship matches, nine goals in all, and they have let in 26 in 15 league games this season. Birmingham City created five big chances to their two. There is still fight in this side, though. They came from behind to beat Burnley 4-1 with 21 shots and five big chances, and drew 2-2 at Millwall as heavy underdogs despite playing with ten men.

Wrexham: harder to read

Wrexham's last five Championship games split sharply by venue. At home they beat Middlesbrough 2-0 as clear underdogs and Preston North End 4-1 as clear favourites. They also held Wolverhampton Wanderers 1-1, though they were outshot 21 to 6 that day. Away from home they lost at Sheffield United and Blackburn Rovers without scoring. The Blackburn Rovers defeat stands out because Wrexham were slight favourites and took 24 shots, yet only one hit the target while Blackburn Rovers made three big chances.

Their season numbers are steadier than Lincoln City's, with 20 conceded in 15 league games. That gap matters, because it is the main reason this match is closer than Wrexham's recent away results suggest.

Players who could decide it

Kieffer Moore is the obvious threat. He has five goals and three assists for Wrexham, so a Lincoln City defence that has allowed 2.0 xG a match over its last five will need to deal with him. Danny Imray, with three assists, is the other main source of chances. For Lincoln City, Mikkel Ladefoged leads the scoring with three, while Ben House adds two goals and two assists. George Wickens has started every league game and made 46 saves, though he has kept only four clean sheets.

What we expect

Goals at both ends look more likely than a tight game. Both teams have scored in four of Lincoln City's last five Championship matches, and Wrexham have scored 18 in 15 league games. Lincoln City have produced enough chances at home to give them a slight edge, while Wrexham have failed to score on their recent away trips. The material risk is Lincoln City's defence, because a side that keeps conceding gives Moore plenty of openings. For our call on how it ends, see the Pundit Pick section below.