Porto 4-1 Napoli: result and report

The Pundit picked Porto (49%): correct

Report

Porto beat Napoli 4-1 in the Champions League. The margin grew late, but the chance numbers show Porto were the better side long before the last two goals went in.

Porto started the scoring early, though they could not hold the lead to half-time. Jan Bednarek put them ahead on 11 minutes from a Gabri Veiga assist. Scott McTominay then finished a Rasmus Højlund pass on 43 minutes, so Napoli went in level.

The game stayed at 1-1 until the 71st minute, when Gabri Veiga turned scorer from Santiago Gimenez's pass. Jakub Kiwior made it 3-1 on 80 minutes after In-beom Hwang's assist. Rafa Marín was sent off on 88 minutes, and substitute Samu Aghehowa scored the penalty that followed to make it 4-1.

The key point is that Porto did not need to be wasteful or lucky to win this. They finished with 2.73 xG to Napoli's 1.51, took 14 shots to seven and created four big chances to two. They also hit the woodwork twice, while Napoli never did. Four goals is still slightly more than those chances were worth, but the late penalty accounts for part of that.

Porto also had far more of the sustained pressure, which fits with their 48 dangerous attacks to Napoli's 38. Possession was almost even, so this was less about keeping the ball than about getting into dangerous areas more often.

Napoli were still a threat whenever they did get forward. Six of their seven shots were on target, and Porto's goalkeeper had to make five saves. That is why the game stayed level for so long despite Porto's greater volume of chances.

The red card should not be read as the turning point, because Porto were already 3-1 up when Marín went off. It shaped the final margin, not the result.