Tottenham Hotspur v Ipswich Town prediction

The Pundit's prediction: Tottenham Hotspur to win (51% chance).

Preview

## Tottenham Hotspur: sturdy, but short of cutting edge

Only a point separates these sides in the Premier League. Tottenham Hotspur are 10th on 12 points and Ipswich Town 14th on 11. The hosts arrive after a 1-0 defeat at Leeds United, and it was a deserved one. Tottenham Hotspur had 62% of the ball but managed only seven shots and one big chance, while Leeds United had 16 shots and four big chances.

The wins before that need some context. Tottenham Hotspur beat Chelsea and Crystal Palace 2-0 in successive Premier League matches, but both opponents finished with ten men. Against Palace they had 34 shots and six big chances, yet missed four of those big chances. The defence has been the steadier part of the side. They have conceded no more than once in each of their last five Premier League matches, and Antonín Kinský has four clean sheets this season.

Ipswich Town: goals at both ends

Ipswich Town have been more competitive than their league position suggests, even though the results have not always followed. They ran Manchester City close in a 3-2 defeat as heavy underdogs. They also came from behind to beat Fulham 2-1 with a late winner when they were not expected to win. At Hull City they created four big chances in a 2-2 draw but missed three of them.

The problem is at the back. Ipswich Town have conceded in each of their last five Premier League matches, and Ipswich Town and their opponents have both scored in all five of those games. AFC Bournemouth then won 2-1 there despite Ipswich Town having more of the ball. Julio Enciso (two goals, two assists) and Leif Davis (two goals, one assist, every minute played) carry most of the threat.

What we expect

Tottenham Hotspur have the stronger case, mainly because their defence has held up while Ipswich Town keep giving chances away. Tottenham Hotspur have created 1.6 xG a match over their last five, while Ipswich Town have allowed 1.9 a match over theirs. Mohammed Kudus, with three assists, and Andrew Robertson, with two, are the likeliest sources of those chances.

The risk is a repeat of the Leeds United game, where plenty of the ball produced very little. Ipswich Town have scored in every one of their last five league matches, so this looks more like a game in which both sides find the net than a home clean sheet. A goal or two either way would fit better than a high-scoring game. Confidence in any outcome should stay modest, though. See the Pundit Pick section below for our call.