Manchester City v Fulham prediction

The Pundit's prediction: Manchester City to win (62% chance).

Preview

## Manchester City's league defeats

Manchester City come into this on the back of a 3-2 Champions League win at RB Leipzig, but their last two Premier League games both ended in defeat. Neither loss came from being outplayed. They lost 1-0 at home to Brighton & Hove Albion as clear favourites despite 21 shots, five big chances and a shot off the woodwork. Before that, they lost 2-1 at Aston Villa while putting seven shots on target to Villa's two.

The bigger worry is at the other end. City have conceded in each of their last five matches across the Champions League, Premier League and Carabao Cup, eight goals in all. The 2-2 Carabao Cup draw with Brighton & Hove Albion was the one game where they were genuinely second best, with six shots on target against them to their own three. Even so, City still sit second on 21 points.

Fulham's form: chances made, chances missed

Fulham are 15th on nine points, though they are unbeaten in their last four Premier League matches. They scored exactly once in each of those games. The win at Coventry City needed a late winner, and the 1-0 over Hull City came despite Fulham playing with ten men. Their most recent game, a 1-1 draw with Newcastle United, was decided by a late equaliser.

Fulham's problem is turning chances into goals. They missed all four of their big chances against Hull City, against Aston Villa and in the 1-0 Carabao Cup defeat to Crystal Palace, where they had 14 shots to four but still lost as slight underdogs. Josh King leads their scoring with just two goals, while Bernd Leno has kept three clean sheets.

Recent meetings

City have won all five of the recent meetings, but the last two were closer than that record suggests. Fulham created more xG in February's 3-0 defeat at the Etihad Stadium, 1.77 to 1.59. In December 2025 City won 5-4 at Fulham. That suggests Fulham can find openings here, even if they have rarely made them count.

What we expect

City should create far more, because the attacking numbers are on their side. They have averaged 1.8 xG a match over their last five and were on top for 67% of the minutes in those games. Erling Haaland has nine goals, Rayan Cherki has four and Josko Gvardiol has four assists, so City have several routes to goal even when the finishing lets them down.

The main risk is City's defending, because Fulham have scored in each of their last four league games. Fulham's matches have been tight, though, with no more than two goals in any of their last five. That points to a City win with Fulham capable of one goal, rather than a repeat of December's 5-4. For our call, see the Pundit Pick section below.