Liverpool v Manchester United prediction

The Pundit's prediction: Liverpool to win (47% chance).

Preview

## Manchester United: chances made, goals let in

Manchester United go to Anfield 19th in the Premier League with seven points, while Liverpool sit fourth on 18. The gap in the table matches a clear problem at the back. United have conceded in each of their last five matches in the Premier League and the Champions League, letting in 15 goals in that run. They have also allowed 1.8 xG a match over their last five.

The results still do not tell the whole story, because United's attack has shown signs of life. They had 26 shots and six big chances in a 4-4 home draw with Aston Villa. That game finished with a late equaliser, and United also missed three big chances and hit the woodwork. The 3-0 home defeat by AFC Bournemouth was the worse sign. United lost as slight favourites despite 63% of the ball, creating no big chances while giving up six. Discipline has hurt too. They finished with ten men in the 3-2 comeback win over Roma and in the 2-0 defeat at Chelsea.

Liverpool: the bigger tests

Liverpool's case rests on how often they create chances. They have produced 2.0 xG a match over their last five. The 3-1 win at Crystal Palace, where they were clear favourites, came with 18 shots from inside the box.

Two recent defeats are the risk, though. Liverpool lost 1-0 at home to Arsenal without a single shot on target. They then lost 3-2 at Fenerbahçe in the Champions League as clear favourites, despite 68% of the ball and 22 shots. Neither performance suggests a side that turns pressure into goals every time.

Players likely to matter

Alexander Isak is the obvious threat, with seven goals this season. Liverpool also share the chance-making around. Florian Wirtz, Cody Gakpo and Bradley Barcola have three assists each. For Manchester United, Bryan Mbeumo has four goals and Bruno Fernandes three. Senne Lammens has made 30 saves while conceding 15 goals in 810 minutes, which shows how often he has been left exposed.

What we expect

This looks more likely to be an open game than a tight one, because Liverpool keep creating chances and United keep conceding them. Alisson's four clean sheets show Liverpool can still shut a game down, but United have scored three or more twice in their last five, so they can trouble Liverpool. Even so, their errors at the back and their lost discipline make it hard to see them holding out for long. Liverpool have the stronger case, while the defeats to Arsenal and Fenerbahçe mean it is not a comfortable one. For our call and how confident we are, see the Pundit Pick section below.