Hull City v Brighton & Hove Albion prediction

The Pundit's prediction: Brighton & Hove Albion to win (62% chance).

Preview

## Brighton & Hove Albion: results ahead of the chances

Brighton & Hove Albion arrive at the MKM Stadium third in the Premier League on 19 points, while Hull City sit 13th on 11. Brighton's recent league wins look better in the table than they did on the pitch, though. They won 1-0 at Manchester City as underdogs, yet City created five big chances, missed every one and hit the woodwork. The 2-0 home win over Brentford came against ten men and included a penalty.

Finishing remains the open question. Brighton had 17 shots at Liverpool but only one on target in a 2-0 defeat. In the Europa Conference League at Getafe they missed four of their five big chances and hit the woodwork, still winning 1-0. The defence has been the steadier part of the side. Bart Verbruggen has six clean sheets and has conceded seven goals in his nine starts this season.

Hull City: hard to beat at home, hard to trust

Hull City have drawn their last three Premier League home games, against Everton, Brentford and Ipswich Town. They took points as underdogs against both Everton and Brentford. Those draws flatter them, because Everton created eight big chances to Hull's two in the 2-2. Hull have also conceded in each of their last five Premier League matches, letting in seven goals in total.

Their away defeats were narrow, but the margins were kind. At Arsenal they lost only 1-0 as heavy underdogs because Konstantinos Tzolakis made nine saves. At Fulham they did not manage a shot on target, even though Fulham finished with ten men and missed four big chances. Over their last five Premier League games Hull have created 0.8 xG a match while allowing 1.6. Mohamed Belloumi (three goals, two assists) and Oli McBurnie (two goals, two assists) carry most of the attacking threat.

What we expect

This looks like a low-scoring game, because Hull rarely create much and Brighton's defence has kept six clean sheets. Brighton should have more of the chances, and Pascal Groß, with three goals and four assists, is the player most likely to turn them into something. Hull's best route is to keep it tight and hope Tzolakis has another big afternoon, as he did at Arsenal.

The main risk is Brighton's own finishing. They have left big chances behind at Getafe and drawn a blank on target at Liverpool. Meanwhile Hull have not lost any of their last three league games at home. That leaves room for a draw if Brighton stay wasteful. Our full verdict sits in the Pundit Pick section below.