Chelsea v Leeds United prediction

The Pundit's prediction: Chelsea to win (48% chance).

Preview

## Chelsea's recent form

Chelsea return to Stamford Bridge after a 1-0 defeat at Sunderland in the Premier League, a game they lost as slight favourites. They had 69% of the ball and 54 dangerous attacks to Sunderland's 17. Sunderland still created four big chances to Chelsea's two, and Chelsea conceded a penalty. The territory never turned into better chances.

Their stronger league displays came either side of a home defeat to Tottenham Hotspur, which they played out with ten men. They had 18 shots, seven on target, in a 2-0 win at Everton. They then had 19 shots, ten on target, in beating Manchester United 2-0. That second win needs a caveat, though, because United also finished with ten men.

Leeds United's recent form

Leeds sit ninth, two points behind fifth-placed Chelsea, after a 1-0 home win over Tottenham Hotspur in the Premier League in a game expected to be close. They had only 38% of the ball but still out-shot Spurs 16 to seven and created four big chances. They missed three of those chances, so the margin could have been wider.

Goals remain the concern. Leeds have scored three times in their last five Premier League matches and have failed to score in two of their last three. At AFC Bournemouth they managed one shot on target in a 2-0 defeat. They are harder to break down, though. James Trafford has kept four clean sheets and conceded eight goals in his ten starts this season.

The players likely to matter

Chelsea spread the threat around. Morgan Rogers and João Pedro have five goals each this season, while João Pedro and Cole Palmer have three assists apiece. Leeds depend far more on Dominic Calvert-Lewin, whose four goals are twice as many as any team-mate's. Tarik Muharemović leads their creators with two assists. Leeds create so little, so Calvert-Lewin may only get one or two real chances to make his mark.

What we expect

Chelsea have the edge at home because they create more and carry more scoring threat. Leeds have struggled to turn chances into goals. The main risk is that Leeds sit higher than Chelsea in our club strength ratings. Chelsea's defeats to Sunderland and Tottenham Hotspur also show how often their pressure has gone unrewarded. Chelsea beat Leeds 6-3 in the Carabao Cup in September. Even so, Leeds' league scoring and Trafford's record point to a tighter, lower-scoring game this time. Our call is in the Pundit Pick section below.