Aston Villa v Sunderland prediction

The Pundit's prediction: Aston Villa to win (52% chance).

Preview

Sunderland come to Villa Park bottom of the Premier League with five points, but they arrive off a 1-0 win over Chelsea that they earned as underdogs. Aston Villa are 12th on 12 points.

Aston Villa: chances made, chances missed

Aston Villa's results have been worse than their attacking play. They created six big chances in the Carabao Cup at AFC Bournemouth, missed every one and still lost 3-0 despite hitting the woodwork. Against Fulham in the Premier League they missed a penalty, hit the woodwork again and had to settle for 1-1. Even the 3-1 Champions League win over Viking came with six of eight big chances missed. The chances are coming, while the finishing has let them down.

The bigger worry is at the other end. Aston Villa have conceded in each of their last five matches across the Champions League, the Premier League and the Carabao Cup, letting in nine goals. The 3-0 defeat at FC Barcelona was deserved, because the hosts had five big chances to Aston Villa's one. Even the 2-1 win over Manchester City, earned as underdogs, leaned on Zion Suzuki's six saves while Manchester City carried most of the threat.

Sunderland: bottom, but awkward

The win over Chelsea shows why Sunderland can be harder to beat than their position suggests. They had only 31% of the ball but created four big chances to Chelsea's two, scored the only goal from the penalty spot and got four saves from Robin Roefs. The problem is turning chances into goals. They missed three of those four big chances and managed only two shots on target in each of their last two Premier League games.

Their wider run is uneven. They lost 3-1 at Coventry City in the Premier League after going down to ten men. In the Europa League they lost 2-0 at home to Dinamo Zagreb as clear favourites, despite 17 shots, seven on target and a shot against the woodwork. Brian Brobbey leads their scoring with three goals this season, though the goals have otherwise been spread thinly.

What we expect

Aston Villa are the likelier winners because they have been producing more big chances than Sunderland. Nicolas Jackson, with five goals this season, is the man most likely to finish what John McGinn and Johan Manzambi set up; both have three assists. Sunderland will need Roefs at his best, and he has already conceded 17 goals this season.

A high-scoring game looks less likely, though. Aston Villa have failed to score in two of their last three matches across the Champions League, the Premier League and the Carabao Cup, and Sunderland have rarely tested goalkeepers in the league lately. The main risk is Aston Villa's habit of conceding, which still leaves Sunderland a route back into the game. Our full call is in the Pundit Pick section below.