AFC Bournemouth v Nottingham Forest prediction

The Pundit's prediction: AFC Bournemouth to win (56% chance).

Preview

Nottingham Forest come to the Vitality Stadium on the back of a 3-1 win over Manchester City, yet they are still 19th in the Premier League with six points from nine games. AFC Bournemouth sit 9th on 12 points. Their recent results suggest the gap between the sides is wider than one surprise win implies.

AFC Bournemouth: results backed by chances

The 3-0 win at Manchester United shows Bournemouth's level best. They won as underdogs, and although United had 63% of the ball and 17 shots, Bournemouth created all six of the game's big chances. Leeds United were then beaten 2-0 at home and managed only one shot on target. Djordje Petrovic has kept three league clean sheets this season.

The European wins need more care. AC Milan were beaten 3-0 and Sparta Praha 3-1, but both opponents finished with ten men, and Bournemouth needed a late winner after falling behind in Prague. Even so, they had 20 shots in each game. They have scored two or more in each of their last three matches across the Europa League, the Premier League and the Carabao Cup. Marcus Tavernier, with five league goals, and Evanilson, with four goals and four assists, carry most of that threat.

Nottingham Forest: chances made, chances missed

Forest's problem has been finishing rather than making chances. They lost 3-1 at Crystal Palace as clear favourites despite 24 shots and eight big chances, seven of which went begging. The City win went the other way. Forest had 22% of the ball and one big chance but still scored three, while City missed all three of theirs.

The defence is the bigger worry, because Forest have conceded in each of their last five Premier League games, eight goals in total. Matz Sels has one clean sheet in nine league games. Dan Ndoye leads their scoring with just two goals, and the team have managed only six league goals all season.

What we expect

Bournemouth should have the better of the chances. They were on top for 58% of minutes over their last five games and averaged 2.2 xG, while Forest have rarely turned their pressure into goals. Bournemouth have also won the last two meetings at the Vitality Stadium, 5-0 and 2-0. A home goal looks likely given Forest's run of conceding. Forest's lack of goals, though, points to a home win by a goal or two rather than a high-scoring game.

The main risk is Forest finding their finishing. The City game showed they can punish a side that has more of the ball, so Bournemouth cannot afford to waste chances. For our call, see the Pundit Pick section below.