Brentford 2-0 Nottingham Forest: result and report

The Pundit picked Brentford (43%): correct

Report

Brentford won 2-0, but the scoreline makes the afternoon look far more comfortable than it was. Nottingham Forest had more of the ball and more of the chances, while Brentford made far better use of the little they created.

The opener came on 30 minutes, and Forest gave it to them. Nikola Milenković turned the ball into his own net to put Brentford 1-0 up.

Forest still could not find a way back. Brentford settled it on 76 minutes, when Jaidon Anthony set up Igor Thiago for the second.

The underlying numbers point clearly towards Forest. They finished with more xG, 1.08 to 0.73, and had nine shots to Brentford's six. They also had 58% of the possession and ten key passes to three. Their territorial edge was even clearer in dangerous attacks, where they led 45 to 24.

Yet the extra possession did not turn into extra shooting accuracy. Each side had one shot on target and one big chance. Forest missed theirs, and their only effort on target was saved. Brentford, despite having less of the ball, scored with their one shot on target and also hit the woodwork. Their first goal did not need a shot of their own at all.

The pressure pattern tells the same story. Forest's average pressure was roughly double Brentford's across the match, so this was not a home side squeezing the life out of their visitors. Brentford spent long spells without the ball and still conceded only one shot on target.

That is the real takeaway. Brentford did not create much, but they limited Forest to a single effort on target despite all that pressure. They then took the moments that came their way. Their regular attackers were involved too. Kevin Schade, Keane Lewis-Potter and Igor Thiago all started, and Thiago supplied the goal that ended the contest.