Aston Villa 2-1 Manchester City: result and report

The Pundit picked Manchester City (55%): wrong

Report

Aston Villa beat Manchester City 2-1 at Villa Park, though the scoreline hides how much of the game went the other way. City were expected to win and created the better chances. Villa still took the points because they scored with every chance that counted.

Nicolas Jackson gave Villa the lead after six minutes, finishing a move set up by John McGinn. That lead held until the 52nd minute, when Erling Haaland equalised from Iliman Ndiaye's pass.

City were level for only eight minutes, because Jackson struck again on the hour from Ibrahim Mbaye's assist. Villa then held on for the final half hour, despite City having most of the ball across the match.

Manchester City: the better chances, the wrong result

City's numbers point to a side that should have taken something from the game. They finished with 1.79 xG to Villa's 0.66, seven shots on target to two and four big chances to two. They missed three of those big chances, while Villa missed none.

The near misses add to that picture. City hit the woodwork twice and had 64% possession. They also spent far more of the match on the front foot, so the territory belonged to them even though the decisive moments did not.

The goalkeeping figures show where the game turned. Villa's goalkeeper made six saves, while City's made none, because Villa's only two shots on target both went in.

Nicolas Jackson's decisive day

Jackson was the difference between the two sides. Both of Villa's shots on target were his goals, so his finishing turned a thin attacking return into a win. He was named player of the match, and it is hard to argue with that, though McGinn and Mbaye deserve credit for the passes that set him up.